Power System Master Plan 2016 Update
1.1 Purpose and Scope
The 2016 Power System Master Plan (PSMP) reflects and accommodates recent development in the economy, including development in the gas sub sector as well as government policy guidelines. The policy guidelines include, among others the desire by the government to accelerate economic growth through the Vision 2025, MKUKUTA and the Five Year Development Plan–II (2016/17-2020/21, FYDP-II). The government also aims to expedite economic growth by means of the revival and renovation of industries.
“Among the outcomes associated with the attainment of these objectives, FYDP 2016/17-2020/21 will raise annual real GDP growth to 10 percent by 2021 (from 7.0 percent in 2015), per capita income to US$ 1,500 (from US$ 1,043in 2014) and reduction of the poverty rate to 16.7 percent from 28.2 percent recorded in 2011/12. The Plan also envisages raising FDI flows from US$ 2.14 billion in 2014 to over US$ 9.0 billion by 2021; increase electricity generation from 1,501MW in 2015 to 4,915MW by 2020 and improving electricity connections to 60 percent of the population, up from 36 percent in 2015. On average, manufacturing sector will grow by over 10 percent per annum with its share in total exports increasing from 24 percent in 2014/15 to 30 percent in 2020.” The government vision is to become a middle income country by 2025 with electricity consumption of 490kWh/capita.
The fundamental objective is also to attain stable power supply in order to achieve Economic Growth, Energy Security and Environmental Protection. The government of Tanzania set the maximum target to reduce poverty by achieving high economic growth, which could be achieved through a stable and efficient power system.
The overall objective of the Plan is to re-assess short-term (2016 – 2020), mid-term (2021 – 2025) and long term (2026 – 2040), generation and transmission plans requirements and the need for connecting presently off-grid regions, options for power exchanges with neighboring countries, and increased supply of reliable power. While the short-term plan requires immediate decision and actions, the mid – long term plans require coordinated planning and project development studies to ensure that future electricity supply utilizes the least cost projects in consistent with sound planning criteria in order to address national interests. This report has been prepared drawing inference on specific data items or detailed procedures in the previous PSMP 2008 and the subsequent 2009 and 2012 Update studies.
In 2008, a Power System Master Plan (PSMP) was developed by the consultant SNC – Lavalin of Canada for the Government of Tanzania, through TANESCO, to provide a fundamentally new plan to guide the development of the power system in Tanzania for the next 25 years. The study provided a detailed assessment of load demand projections, available options for meeting the demand and requirements for a new higher voltage backbone transmission system for the country.